Analysis: Albayrak Concerns in the Market – Are You Coming Back Before November? | ECONOMY | DW

It is unclear whether President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s son-in-law Berat Albayrak will be reinstated in the cabinet. On the other hand, since the recent appointments in the bureaucracy are close to him, Albayrak is expected to be effective in managing the economy in the new era, even if he does not take office.

Following the dismissal of Central Bank Governor Naji Agbal, changes were made in the management of state-owned banks. The most important change was the dismissal of Hussein Aydin, the general director of Ziraat Bank for about 10 years. He was replaced by Alpaslan Cakar, one of the deputy general managers. When these people, who are not well known to the public, are investigated, their closeness to the former Minister of Finance and Finance Berat Albayrak is obvious. Only Agbal’s dismissal has raised fears that “the fight against inflation will be abandoned and the concept of economic leadership will be restored before November.” This fear was exacerbated by the appearance of people appointed to state banks near Albayrak.

Completely early November period at the Central Bank

Agbal made only one change when he was chairman of the Central Bank, and Dogan Basari, the director general of human resources, resigned. He noted that the new President Kavcioglu’s appointment to his previous position as soon as he succeeds. When investigated, it was understood that Dogan Basar, a bank of Asian origin, was close to former Minister Berat Albayrak. Kavcioglu, who is known to be the doctoral student of the Vice President of the Wealth Fund Ericah Arıca, like Albayrak, made it meaningful to appoint Basar as the first job. Although Agbal demanded, no changes were allowed in the Bank’s management, and now the Central Bank is completely returning to November.

Although changes were made in the board of directors of the general meetings of public banks held last week, most importantly, it took place in the General Directorate of Ziraat Bank. Surprisingly, General Manager Aydin was fired, and one of his deputies, Alpaslan Cakar, was appointed to replace him. It is being discussed whether Hussein Aydin will be appointed to a ministry or another position during the cabinet reshuffle.

It is not known whether he took a new position, but we learned that Berat Albayrak was still effective in getting Aydın. Albayrak had a disagreement with Aydin in the last period of his ministry, so he was said to be working with Alpaslan Cakar, one of the deputy directors at the same time. It is believed that Chakar was appointed general manager thanks to Albayrak, who was close to him during this period. It is alleged that Burhanettin Tanyeri, a former AKP candidate who was appointed chairman of the board of Ziraat Bank, was appointed with the same connection.

Economics writer Erdal Saglam

Bankers and the business world are worried

Ziraat Bank has always been important in managing the economy, but under Albayrak’s leadership, its function has been comprehensively expanded. Subsidized state-owned banks for both open currency sales and cheap loans were highlighted, and public stakes in the bank increased. Hussein Aydin worked in harmony with the government, but as a former banker, he also objected to Ziraat Bank taking risks without accounting. We know that on the instructions of Albayrak, the Central Bank’s management has from time to time resisted attempts to impose a burden on Ziraat Bank and to give long-term open positions due to foreign exchange interventions. In addition, the minister’s interventions with Aydin’s aides led to his recent dismissal.

Albayrak’s reaction also drew the reaction of Hussein Aydin, who protects the sector he wears in the Banks Association’s hat. Unexpectedly, when he took office, he took on a very important role in protecting the rights of the sector and bringing problems to political power. Bankers say Aydin’s departure is a “second shock after Agbal.” They say they are looking for the Aydin period to power the sector’s problems and produce a common solution formula.

The government’s understanding of the economy has not changed

The appointment of Naji Agbal as Governor of the Central Bank and Lutfu Elvan as Minister of Treasury and Finance in November, and President Erdogan’s talk of economic and legal reform, gave hope to the business world, interpreted as a return to economic error, a return to rapprochement. Agbal’s short-term decisions halted confidence in both domestic and foreign markets, halted the deterioration in the markets, and raised hopes for the outflow of foreign capital. At the same time, Agbal’s credibility was disappointed with the legal and economic reforms he had announced. On the other hand, the 2-point increase in the Central Bank was a new turning point due to the need to close the confidence gap and take a more decisive approach to inflation. President Erdogan’s intolerance of this growth and Agbali’s resignation revealed the fact that the government’s understanding of the economy has not changed.

If there is a return to economic leadership before November, it is clear that the account will be heavier than before. and world financial and commodity-oil prices are up against Turkey in November. The harsh reaction from foreign capital, a tangible sign of Turkey’s business, would be more difficult in terms of foreign resources and ratings if it returned before November.

Erdal Sağlam

© Deutsche Welle Turkish

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