Central Bank Governor Agbal announces inflation forecast

The Chairman of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBT), Naci Agbal Agbal, announced the inflation figures at the 2021 meeting in the 2021 Information Inflation Report.

CBRG Governor Agbal announced the inflation forecast for 2021 at 9.4 percent. Agbal said inflation is expected to fall to 7 percent by the end of 2022 and 5 percent by the end of 2023, he said.

Stating that the inflation targeting regime will be continued “within the framework of a simple operation with all its elements”, Agbal said, “If there is a reduction in inflation and price stability under a view that will continue until the strong indicators that the tight position in monetary policy will last for a long time, inflation 2021 will take place at the end of the year as 9.4 percent. At the end of 2022, we estimate that it will fall to 7 percent and 5 percent of the medium-term target. The end of 2023, “he said.

Saying that the Monetary Policy Committee will use all the tools in a timely and effective manner, Agbal continued:

“The tight and prudent position in monetary policy will continue for a long time until it reaches the 5 percent target by 2023. If new information is obtained in addition to the existing data, it indicates the risk of exceeding the average level – inflation expectations and the price target path in price behavior, plus Tightening The level between the real / expected inflation rate and the monetary policy interest rate will be established taking into account a strong inflationary balance until it reaches the 5 percent target, and this balance will be maintained continuously. “

“In addition, we expect inflation expectations to contribute 0.5 percentage points to the end-of-year forecast as the tight monetary position continues,” Agbal said. He said.

Stating that food inflation continues to pose a significant risk in 2021 due to inflation, Agbal said, “If we ensure price stability in Turkey, the decision of the whole economy in the form of the need for price behavior that will contribute to future inflation expectations and price stability.”

Agbal said that they have fixed food inflation to 11.5 percent in 2021 and food prices for 2022 have been set at 9.4 percent.


© Deutsche Welle Turkish


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