TÜSİAD gave a forecast for 2021 on the changes in the Turkish economy after the review by the President of the Central Bank. TÜSİAD Economic Research Unit said in a report prepared by high inflation in a short period of time that the Turkish economy will be followed by two important problems, the need for foreign financing, stating that the two most important variables “both will play a key role in growth.”
Rising inflation and a significant decline in purchasing power are both predictable and have eroded confidence in the economy, the report said. “Although the effectiveness of monetary policy has declined in a semi-dollarized economy, the increasing frequency of the central bank president in recent years and the weakening of monetary policy-making capacity make it difficult to fight inflation. As a result of the decline in the ability to produce sound economic policies, structural inflation has increased for years, but has reached a sticky level (stubborn in the range of 12-14 percent). We expect inflation to continue in double digits in 2021 at 15.6 percent as of March 2021. ” Recalling that TUSIAD had previously forecast inflation at 11 percent by the end of 2021, the report said, “Recent changes have increased uncertainty about our forecasts.” comments were included.
The report shows that TUSIAD’s GDP growth forecast at the beginning of the year was 4.5 percent and “Recently, due to the growing uncertainty, the depreciation of the exchange rate and the increased risk premium, there are new risks to our growth forecast. Despite the growing uncertainty we are talking about, we maintain our 4.5% growth forecast for 2021 at this stage. Although 5 points of growth comes from domestic demand, we estimate that net external demand will have a 0.5 point lower impact. “ It was not.
However, growth was not sustainable:
“Although we expect growth of 4.5 percent in 2021, growth dynamics, especially the weak trend in the investment item and the pressure on the exchange rate, is a point of unsustainable growth in the private sector balance sheets. To achieve sustainable growth, we need to achieve price stability and put the economy on a more predictable and low volatility path. “
TUSIAD announced its economic forecasts for 2021 as follows:
$ 220 billion in foreign currency is needed
TÜSİAD report, the need for foreign financing of the Turkish economy in 2021 is estimated at $ 220 billion, he said.
Of this, $ 180 billion comes from the private sector (bank + non-bank) and public external debt, and $ 40 billion from the current account deficit.